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STGAtt: A Spatial-Temporal Unified Graph Attention Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Liang, Zhuding, Cui, Jianxun, Zeng, Qingshuang, Liu, Feng, Filipovic, Nenad, Geroski, Tijana

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate and timely traffic flow forecasting is crucial for intelligent transportation systems. This paper presents a novel deep learning model, the Spatial-Temporal Unified Graph Attention Network (STGAtt). By leveraging a unified graph representation and an attention mechanism, STGAtt effectively captures complex spatial-temporal dependencies. Unlike methods relying on separate spatial and temporal dependency modeling modules, STGAtt directly models correlations within a Spatial-Temporal Unified Graph, dynamically weighing connections across both dimensions. To further enhance its capabilities, STGAtt partitions traffic flow observation signal into neighborhood subsets and employs a novel exchanging mechanism, enabling effective capture of both short-range and long-range correlations. Extensive experiments on the PEMS-BAY and SHMetro datasets demonstrate STGAtt's superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines across various prediction horizons. Visualization of attention weights confirms STGAtt's ability to adapt to dynamic traffic patterns and capture long-range dependencies, highlighting its potential for real-world traffic flow forecasting applications.


Stability and Identification of Random Asynchronous Linear Time-Invariant Systems

Lale, Sahin, Teke, Oguzhan, Hassibi, Babak, Anandkumar, Anima

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many computational tasks and dynamical systems, asynchrony and randomization are naturally present and have been considered as ways to increase the speed and reduce the cost of computation while compromising the accuracy and convergence rate. In this work, we show the additional benefits of randomization and asynchrony on the stability of linear dynamical systems. We introduce a natural model for random asynchronous linear time-invariant (LTI) systems which generalizes the standard (synchronous) LTI systems. In this model, each state variable is updated randomly and asynchronously with some probability according to the underlying system dynamics. We examine how the mean-square stability of random asynchronous LTI systems vary with respect to randomization and asynchrony. Surprisingly, we show that the stability of random asynchronous LTI systems does not imply or is not implied by the stability of the synchronous variant of the system and an unstable synchronous system can be stabilized via randomization and/or asynchrony. We further study a special case of the introduced model, namely randomized LTI systems, where each state element is updated randomly with some fixed but unknown probability. We consider the problem of system identification of unknown randomized LTI systems using the precise characterization of mean-square stability via extended Lyapunov equation. For unknown randomized LTI systems, we propose a systematic identification method to recover the underlying dynamics. Given a single input/output trajectory, our method estimates the model parameters that govern the system dynamics, the update probability of state variables, and the noise covariance using the correlation matrices of collected data and the extended Lyapunov equation. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that the proposed method consistently recovers the underlying system dynamics with the optimal rate.